THE METHOD / OPEN TO INSPECTION
Belief is not evidence.
Eight dimensions. Public weights. An inspectable short thesis. The Pit Score starts at 100 and moves toward zero as bearish evidence strengthens; lower means a stronger short thesis, not a probability of profit.
Score dimensions
Each dimension measures bearish pressure 0-100. The heavier the total pressure, the further the published Pit Score burns down from 100.
Signal sources
Where every data point comes from. Full transparency
Price Downtrend
25%Polygon
Multi-timeframe price decline analysis across 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year windows. Detects sustained selling pressure and accelerating declines.
Technical Indicators
12%Polygon
RSI overbought/oversold readings, price position relative to 200-day SMA, and MACD bearish crossover detection. Classic technical breakdown signals.
News Sentiment
15%Brave + Cloudflare AI
AI-filtered disruption and negative news articles analyzed with DistilBERT sentiment scoring. Detects emerging narrative shifts before they hit mainstream.
AI Vulnerability
20%Claude AI
LLM-powered assessment of a company's vulnerability to AI disruption. Scores business model fragility, competitive moat erosion, and technological displacement risk on a 0-10 scale.
Short Interest
5%Polygon
Short interest divided by shares outstanding is an estimate, not true free-float short interest. Combined with days-to-cover, it measures crowding and potential squeeze risk; it does not prove institutional conviction.
Volume Anomaly
3%Polygon
Detects unusual trading volume spikes without an accompanying positive catalyst. Distribution volume often precedes major price declines.
Insider Selling
10%FREESEC EDGAR
Counts verified Form 4 stock sales, excluding grants, gifts and purchases. Cluster selling requires multiple filings and distinct insiders. Missing or ambiguous filings make this factor unavailable.
Analyst Consensus
10%FREEFinnhub
Bearish recommendation ratios and earnings misses over the last four quarters. Tracks Wall Street sentiment shifts.
Macro Headwinds
x0.95-1.10FREEFRED
Yield curve inversion, rising unemployment, elevated VIX, and declining consumer sentiment. Acts as a multiplier that amplifies signals during macro stress.
Score computation
Each dimension adds weighted bearish pressure; the published Pit Score is 100 minus the macro-amplified total - it burns toward zero
Score ranges
What different Pit Score levels mean
Maximum Alert
Nearly burned to zero - extreme bearish alignment across almost all dimensions. Rare and significant.
High Conviction
Multiple confirming signals with strong alignment. High-priority target.
Elevated
Strong bearish confluence across multiple dimensions. Active signal.
Moderate
Some bearish pressure detected. Worth monitoring for deterioration.
Low Signal
Still far from the fire. Few bearish indicators present. Not actionable.
Squeeze Risk Score
Separate from the short score, the Squeeze Risk Score identifies positions that could turn against short sellers. A high squeeze risk means the stock has conditions ripe for a short squeeze. Proceed with extreme caution.
High Short Float
Large percentage of float sold short
Low Days to Cover
Shorts can be squeezed quickly
Unusual Volume
Potential buying pressure building
Example Squeeze Risk Breakdown
Daily pipeline
Signals are computed fresh every trading day
Data Collection
03:00 UTC
Market data, news, filings and analyst evidence are checked for completeness
AI Analysis
03:15 UTC
Claude AI evaluates disruption risk; DistilBERT scores news sentiment
Score Computation
03:30 UTC
All 8 dimensions weighted and combined into composite Pit Score
Signal Published
04:00 UTC
Daily signals ranked and delivered to dashboards and email alerts